Foreword

From the early 2000s, Western sanctions on Iran intensified after revelations of its nuclear program, culminating in sweeping UN and U.S. measures targeting oil exports, banking, and technology, including its 2012 disconnection from SWIFT; partial relief followed the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, but the U.S. withdrawal in 2018 restored and expanded restrictions, deepening Iran’s economic isolation and inflationary pressures. In parallel, sanctions on Russia escalated after 2014 (Crimea) and expanded dramatically following the 2022 Ukraine invasion, with over 5,000 measures by 2026, including SWIFT exclusions, asset freezes, export controls, and oil price caps. These sanctions constrained revenues, disrupted financial systems, weakened currencies, and limited access to advanced technologies, slowing industrial and military capacity in both countries. However, they did not fully halt geopolitical ambitions or conflicts, instead prompting adaptation through import substitution, informal trade networks, and “shadow” energy exports. Both Iran and Russia pivoted toward non-Western partners—especially China and India—expanding energy trade, local-currency settlements, and alternative financial channels that reduced reliance on Western systems. Western sanctions also backfired by triggering energy shortages and sharp fuel price increases in Europe, which fueled inflation and slowed economic growth across advanced economies. They further backfired by accelerating the formation of alternative trade and financial networks outside Western control, gradually weakening the dominance of the dollar and reducing long-term Western economic leverage. At the same time, sanctions contributed to global energy price volatility, supply chain disruptions, and market fragmentation. As a result, while sanctions imposed significant economic costs on Iran and Russia, they also reshaped global trade patterns, redistributed geopolitical alignments, and, in some respects, diluted the long-term influence of Western economic power.

The UK economy has been shaped by successive shocks beginning with Brexit in January 2020 after 47 years in the EU, followed by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which caused the deepest recession in over 300 years and led to hundreds of billions of pounds in government borrowing. During 2020–2021, GDP contracted sharply, trade saw its steepest decline, unemployment initially fell then rose, and regions like Wales and Northern Ireland along with sectors such as accommodation and construction were heavily impacted. In February 2022, the Ukraine war intensified energy shocks, pushing UK inflation to 11.1% in 2022 (a 41-year high), while global gas prices rose over 350% by August 2022 and UK wholesale gas increased about 40%, deepening the cost-of-living crisis. In the same period, farm fuel costs rose around 30%, consumer confidence fell to its lowest since November 2020, and real incomes declined significantly through 2022–2023. Between 2022 and 2024, political instability emerged with three different prime ministers amid ongoing volatility from Brexit, pandemic recovery, and energy pressures. From 2023 onward, the Red Sea crisis increased shipping costs by up to 300% and caused delays of up to four weeks, while the risk of a Strait of Hormuz disruption remains a major inflationary and energy shock threat, even as the UK largely avoids direct conflict involvement and focuses on diplomatic responses. The analysis on UK examines how overlapping crises in a former global power have converged amid wider global disruptions, including difficulties meeting the “Net Zero” target by 2050 and rising environmental degradation such as a worsening sewage crisis driven by pandemic effects and extreme weather. It further discusses food insecurity, chronic healthcare underfunding, repeated strikes, widening inequality, Long COVID impacts, and energy contradictions, collectively weakening the UK’s global legacy of imperial influence, parliamentary democracy, and common law traditions.

The United States, the world’s 4th-largest country by area and a leading economic and technological power, has engaged in near-continuous military activity since the end of World War II, shifting from large-scale wars to proxy conflicts, counterterrorism operations, and limited interventions often without formal declarations of war. Its involvement in the Middle East spans over a century, evolving from early 19th-century maritime activity to major events such as the 1953 Iranian coup, the 1991 Gulf War, and 21^st-century wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, along with interventions in Libya and Yemen. As of April 2026, U.S. national debt has surpassed $39 trillion, approximately 1.37 times its GDP. In early 2026, the U.S. intensified actions against Venezuela and Cuba. At the same time, U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict (Operation Epic Fury) is closely linked to strategic competition with China, affecting the BRI project and global energy security. Meanwhile, hundreds of anti-war protests signal rising public dissent, as ongoing military engagement raises concerns about human rights and the credibility of its image as the world’s second-largest democracy. Domestically, a 43-day government shutdown ending in November 2025 exposed deep political divisions between Republicans and Democrats over federal funding. The country also faces a significant climate crisis driven by prolonged reliance on fossil fuels, despite being a leading exporter of oil and gas while criticizing China’s energy policies. The chapter on the United States outlines how the COVID-19 pandemic affected more than half the population, exposing broken safety nets that fueled firearm homicides, recession, currency depreciation, and unemployment fraud. It shows how the Ukraine war benefited the U.S. through energy exports to Europe, strengthening NATO and its strategic position, while it also shaped protests over aggression against Palestinians even as it increased military aid to Israel. The chapter argues the U.S. accounts for more than half of global climate-related economic losses yet bypasses climate funding, revealing contradictions, and highlights ongoing sectoral crises including unemployment and homelessness, substance and firearm abuse, excessive borrowing, inflationary pressures, and continued involvement in global conflicts.

Europe comprised 44 countries, including 27 EU member states and 21 Eurozone economies, with more than half classified as developed, and it historically experienced prolonged intra-European wars and over 500 years of colonial expansion from the early modern period to the mid-20th century, during which European powers dominated large parts of Asia and Africa. The European Union became the world’s third-largest economy, accounting for about one-sixth of global trade, down from over 50% in the 1960s–1970s, supported by strong geography but exposed to external vulnerabilities, including up to 40% of Asia-bound trade passing through the Red Sea corridor. The combined shocks of COVID-19 and the 2022 Ukraine war triggered an unprecedented energy crisis, sharply rising fuel prices and inflation while increasing poverty risks, even as labor markets remained relatively resilient with stable unemployment levels. By early 2026, Europe’s economic outlook remained sluggish, with Eurozone GDP growth projected at roughly 1%–1.3%, reflecting structural weaknesses in major economies and persistent geopolitical pressures. EU states supported the U.S. in Ukraine, viewing Russia’s invasion as an existential security threat amplified by sanctions, energy disruption, inflation, and supply chain stress, while also facing spillover effects from US–China tensions. However, the UK, France, and Germany refused to join a U.S. naval blockade of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, citing legal concerns, escalation risks, and fears of a wider regional war threatening global oil supplies and economic stability. The chapter on Europe explains how the COVID-19 pandemic exposed major healthcare limitations, including critical drug shortages, and shows Europe as the second-most affected region after South America in deaths per million. It also examines how the Ukraine conflict sharply worsened conditions, with electricity and gas prices rising roughly fifteenfold since early 2021 and Europe’s dependence on fossil fuels—especially coal—temporarily increasing. Despite climate policies advancing since the 1990s and a strong push toward renewable energy by 2023, the continent still faced a 97% rise in heat exposure over the past decade. The chapter also highlights sector-specific disruptions driven by overlapping global crises, along with growing food insecurity across parts of Europe.

Iran has a continuous civilizational history spanning 6,000–8,000 years and a military legacy of over 2,500 years, beginning as one of the world’s earliest superpowers on the Iranian plateau. From the 16th–19th centuries, Persia and the Ottoman Empire remained long-term rivals, repeatedly clashing over the Caucasus and Mesopotamia, before Iran shifted from imperial expansion to repeated foreign invasions and modern proxy warfare. In the early 1950s, Iran nationalized its oil industry, triggering the joint Operation Ajax coup that removed Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh and restored Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi with strong U.S. backing, setting the stage for the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iran holds the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves—about 208–209 billion barrels, roughly 12% of global reserves and nearly a quarter of those in the Middle East—giving it substantial geopolitical leverage. In the post-revolution era, Iran consolidated power under the IRGC and expanded its regional influence through allied non-state armed groups across the Middle East. To counter Western pressure, Iran strengthened ties with Russia and China—through arms, technology, and yuan-based trade bypassing SWIFT—while deepening its partnership with India via Chabahar Port to secure energy flows, expand regional access, and enhance economic resilience. As of 2026, Iran was described as a regional hegemon engaged in proxy networks and maritime pressure strategies affecting the Strait of Hormuz. The crisis was linked to wider disruptions extending into the Red Sea, severely impacting global energy flows. The chapter on Iran highlights how the country’s heavy reliance on oil—especially since global oil prices surged in the mid-1970s—has constrained industrial diversification, while worsening climate and water crises are projected to reduce economic output by up to one-third by the end of the century. These structural pressures, compounded by the consecutive impacts of COVID-19, sanctions, and the Ukraine war, pushed the country into deep economic turmoil and fueled nationwide protests. It further examines sectoral impacts alongside overlapping challenges, including widespread food insecurity, violations of women’s and children’s rights, a growing refugee crisis, recurring protests, and persistent imperial ambitions.

Russia, the largest country on Earth, was, before the onset of the Ukraine war, a major contributor of fossil fuel energy, a critical global supplier of agricultural commodities like wheat and mineral fertilizers, ranked 10th in terms of nominal GDP, among the top exporters, and also a major importer globally. Russia’s role in present-day conflicts reflects a strategic drive to restore regional influence and secure trade and security leverage through the war in Ukraine, aimed in part at consolidating the Donbas region, linking it to Crimea, and controlling the Sea of Azov and the northern Black Sea, to project power into the Mediterranean and the Middle East—thereby strengthening military depth, protecting southern borders, and shaping key energy and agricultural trade routes. Although it holds a tactical advantage in eastern Ukraine through gradual advances and superior numbers, does so at an unprecedented cost of over 1.2 million casualties, recently worsened by Ukrainian fire and drone operations. Meanwhile, disruptions such as the Druzhba pipeline damage and the 2022 Nord Stream 1 sabotage show that Europe’s energy challenges are structural and not easily solved by restoring ties with Russia. Sanctions have also reshaped global energy markets, benefiting the U.S., Norway, and Algeria through higher exports, while Turkey, India, and China profit from refining and re-exporting discounted Russian oil and gas into global and partial European markets. This occurs amid rising Western strain, with growing U.S.–NATO tensions and Europe’s energy vulnerability deepening under sanctions and wider disruptions in global energy flows, including risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz, while U.S. actions in Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba are seen as part of a broader effort to reshape influence in the Western Hemisphere and the Middle East. The chapter on Russia shows that COVID-19 placed significant strain on Russia’s healthcare system and economy, disrupting supply chains, employment, and key industries while exposing structural weaknesses. Aggression in Ukraine intensified economic isolation through sanctions, reshaped trade and financial systems, and reinforced dependence on alternative geopolitical and energy partnerships. At the same time, climate change has escalated environmental risks—such as extreme weather and permafrost thaw—undermining infrastructure, agriculture, and long-term economic stability while complicating policy priorities.

Therefore, prolonged conflicts involving Western powers—most notably the Ukraine war and Middle East tensions—have triggered global energy shocks, record inflation, supply chain disruptions, and rising military costs, driving political instability, debt crises, and widening inequality across the UK, US, and Europe. Sanctions and counter-measures have reshaped energy and trade routes, benefitted some non-Western nations while deepened economic isolation and structural weaknesses in Russia and Iran. Climate change—through extreme weather, thawing permafrost, water shortages, and rising heat—is weakening infrastructure, agriculture, and economic stability while slowing progress on net-zero goals, and lingering COVID-19 aftereffects are still straining healthcare, safety nets, and labor markets, fueling food insecurity, housing crises, public unrest, and refugee flows toward a future of ongoing volatility and socioeconomic strain.